
By Anirban Basu, Sage Policy Group
Over the past 18 months, the economy has moved from recession and crisis to recovery and expansion. Though many rightly question the sustainability of the economic recovery that began last summer, for now the economy's newfound momentum is increasingly reflected in Baltimore metropolitan area office leasing performance.
During the third quarter of 2009, the region's direct office vacancy rate rose to 15.5 percent, up from 15.1 percent during the prior quarter. By contrast, during the fourth quarter of 2009, the region's direct vacancy rate actually edged lower to 15.4 percent, though vacancy with sublet ticked slightly higher (16.8 percent). Though this performance seems perfectly unremarkable, the fact that the marketplace is no longer deteriorating substantially is newsworthy.
Stakeholders can also take heart in the region's net absorption numbers, which though not overwhelmingly positive during last year's fourth quarter represented a marked improvement vis-Ã -vis prior quarters. For instance, in Baltimore's City Center, net absorption year-to-date through the fourth quarter approached -520,000 square feet (sf). However, only 5 percent of total negative net absorption was associated with the fourth quarter itself.
Similarly, in the northern portion of the metropolitan area, which encompasses Towson, the I-83 corridor, Harford County and several other markets, net absorption for 2009 was positive to the tune of nearly 143,500 sf. Fourth quarter net absorption represented nearly 92 percent of this total.
Though City Center suffers some of the region's highest office vacancy rates, the City Center also produced some of the region's more noteworthy transactions. Leases of consequence signed in City Center during the fourth quarter of 2009 included a 76,000 sf lease signed by Stifel, Nicolaus and a smaller lease signed by CyberPoint International.
Despite evidence of market stabilization, renters continue to enjoy significant negotiating leverage. This is attributable to the fact that including sublet space, there are 14.7 million square feet (msf) of office space presently available in the region and another 1.3 msf under construction. Correspondingly, asking rents continue to slide lower, from $23.38 per square foot (psf) during the second quarter of last year to $22.75 psf during the third and $22.20 more recently.

Notable Transactions
Lease
| Location | Submarket | Tenant | Amount Leased SF |
| 1 South St | City Center | Stifel, Nicolaus & Company | 75,724 (r) |
| 6280 Guardian Gateway | Harford County | L-3 Communications | 74,334 |
| 100 International Dr | City Center | Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School |
80,469 (sub) |
| 9755 Patuxent Woods Dr | Columbia | CBIZ | 32,016 |
| 7133 Rutherford Rd | Baltimore County West | Gannett Fleming, Inc. | 25,590 |
| 621 E. Pratt St | City Center | CyberPoint International | 21,283 |
Sale
| Location | Submarket | Price | PSF | Building Size SF |
| 1501 S. Clinton St (6 properties) |
Baltimore City East | $125,000,000 | --- | 476,910 |
| 1550 W. Nursery Rd | BWI | $38,000,000 | $243.25 | 156,215 |
| 5445-5601 Loch Raven Blvd |
Baltimore City North | $11,250,000 | $181.45 | 62,000 |
| 1333 Ashton Rd | BWI | $4,330,440 | $120.00 | 36,087 |

* All information furnished regarding property for sale, rent, exchange or financing is from sources deemed reliable. No representation is made as to the accuracy thereof and all such information is submitted subject to errors, omissions, or changes in conditions, prior sale, lease or withdrawal without notice. All information should be verified to the satisfaction of the person relying thereon. Portions of the base statistics are from CoStar Property data. Data as of 12/2009.
| Number of Buildings | 1,225 |
| Market Size | 73,912,460 sf |
| Change Since Last | |||
| Current | QTR | YR | |
| Direct Vacancy | 15.44% | ||
| Vacancy W/ Sublet | 16.78% | ||
| Net Absorption | 325,953 | ||
| Avg. Asking Rate | $22.98 | ||
Above: Baltimore's Northern Metro Office market fared well this quarter with mostly positive absorption and a vacancy lower than Baltimore City and Southern Metro.
Above: Rental rates crept upward this quarter in the suburban market, while Baltimore City saw a slight decrease as a result of rising vacancy.
Historical Vacancy RatesAbove: After dropping to five year lows in late 2006, Total Market vacancy rose steadily for several quarters, but has held relatively steady during the end of 2009. Baltimore City vacancy, however, has been rising sharply since the end of 2008.